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Saturday, 11 April 2020

Corona virus: which countries have reached a peak?

If I average the reported deaths for the last 7 days and normalise by the population of each country (data as at 11/04/2020) I get the following graph. Note the y axis is a logarithmic scale. A figure of 10 per million per day for the UK with a population of 67 million means 670 deaths per day.



We can see Italy and Spain have both reached a peak and are beginning to show declines in daily cases. In contrast, the UK and Belgium are not at their peaks yet. In fact, recent figures from the UK are in the 900 per day range which means we might see the UK plateau above Spain. Belgium looks as though the plateau for this country may be significantly above the others. It's a shame no one notices because of the focus on absolute un-normalised numbers.

Austria is also showing some evidence of a plateau; Germany less so. It's interesting for these countries to see how their rates per million are significantly below the others.

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