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Wednesday, 15 April 2020

Corona virus: evidence that the UK has reached a peak

The graph of daily death rates per million of country population averaged over the last 7 days looks like this.





The UK, US and Belgium look like they are approaching a peak. The data here lags by about a day and I have seen tomorrow's UK data which will continue this plateau. If the shapes of the peaks are anything to go by, the UK should expect to be at this death rate for another week. This equates to around 6,000 deaths in the next 7 days.

In pure numerical terms, the US has the highest rate but once corrected for the country size, it does not look as bad.

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