As of today, 23/3/20, Italy is suffering 91 deaths per million in the country. On 04/03/20, the rate for Italy was 1.3 per million. Spain is suffering 36.8 deaths per million at the moment with 1 death per million back on 12/03/20.
What is interesting is the relative shapes of these graphs and their steepness between countries. For example, the UK, where I live, currently stands at 4.2 deaths per million. Italy was at that rate on 09/03/20. If we assume the growth continues because Italy and the UK look similar, we might conclude that we will be at the same place as Italy in 14 days time. This may be behind the UK prime minister's statement that we are 2 weeks behind Italy.
Of note too is Iran, where the graph is diverging from Italy perhaps indicating that the measures in the former country are having an effect. It's also interesting to see that Spain has a very steep graph and will soon overtake Italy as the most impacted country in terms of death rates per million of population. It's also interesting to see that Belgium and the Netherlands are rising very quickly and the slope of their lines looks similar to the US.
Very interesting - and worth maintaining. It's rather less muddled than the now famous Financial Times presentation. Maybe you could consider a couple of extra countries though - maybe Switzerland, currently at 15.7 if I've calculated it right and maybe South Korea. The latter for comparison with an Asian, mask-wearing, more "coercive" society, and where they've been using the geolocation app without spending a pretty vital two weeks debating privacy concerns.
ReplyDeleteThough I agree about using death rates, there is still some room for errors and fudging as the death has to be correctly registered as down to coronavirus. Some places may be wilfully misdiagnosing, and others might do so out of ignorance. My parents had a friend, for instance, who died on the 6th March after a one-day illness from "pneumonia". We'll know better when excess mortality data can be added to the figures.
Richard Fieldhouse
I do have data for all countries. Switzerland is at 12 deaths per million, South Korea is at 2.5, and the UK is at 6. I'll wait a few days and publish an update. I'm modelling when Spain will overtake Italy in per capita death rates; currently it's 13 days away.
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