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Friday, 27 March 2020

Corona virus death rates per million by country 27-03-2020

Some updated graphs showing how the per capita death rate is still rising. I added South Korea and China.

This graph shows all the data.

This shows how China got on top of their outbreak almost before it had started in many countries.

This graph zooms in to the dates after March 1st.


It looks like it won't be long before France and the Netherlands will exceed the per capita death rate in Iran. It also looks like Spain will exceed Italy relatively soon.

The data sources for these are the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for the mortality data and the World Bank for population data.

Of course, I don't know how many of the deaths would have happened anyway but a crude estimate based on data from the World Population Review web site gives 9.1 and 10.6 deaths per 1,000 per year for Spain and Italy respectively. The populations of Spain and Italy are approximately 47 million and 60 million respectively so in a year we would expect 428,000 and 636,000 deaths in these countries per year or 1,172 and 1,742 per day assuming a constant rate (which is a gross simplification). Both these countries are currently experiencing around 600 to 700 Corona virus deaths each per day, so we can say that we are not exceeding the background normal mortality. This underlines the need to be certain that the Corona deaths are classified correctly so my homework is to read in to the source Corona mortality data to understand how it is being gathered.


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