Corona virus: what is a peak?

It can be difficult to know when a peak happens but I'll have a go for Sweden.

Here's a graph showing the 7 day rolling average of Covid deaths, per day, per million. This time not using a logarithmic axis. 

Before we get to peaks, it's clear that Sweden now has the largest number of deaths per million, now surpassing the UK - something I mentioned a couple of weeks ago. It's interesting to see that France and the UK have different trajectories. I've seen and heard that lockdown in France was very severe - you had to have a certificate to prove you were allowed to go outside. I happen to know in the UK, because I look out of the window, some neighbours have been having impromptu barbecues for some weeks now. Some of my fellow citizens are clearly above the rules. 

Anyway, to Sweden. My untrained eye sees 4 peaks around the following dates...

11-April

25-April

10-May

30-May

So for Sweden, peaks are happening.

The UK has just relaxed its lockdown even more, so it will be interesting to see how the graph changes. Will it go up? My guess is it will, and there will be a period of shouting and distraction to make it go away.

I still can't get away from the simple fact that before a vaccine or cure happens, the virus still has to inflict its Infection Fatality Rate on us. An optimistic 0.36% still means we have more than 150,000 deaths to go. We have more than a year to run at the current daily death rate.